Each week we rank speculative net positioning — Managed Money in commodities, Leveraged Funds in financials — against its own trailing three years. A high percentile means the bullish bet is crowded; a low one, the bearish bet. Positioning is a crowding and context gauge, not a timing signal.
| Instrument | Spec net | Pctile | State | 1w change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | +107,089 | 27 | leaning short | -3,898 |
| Silver | +5,619 | 7 | crowded short | -1,909 |
| Copper | +61,058 | 77 | leaning long | -76 |
| WTI Crude | +40,574 | 14 | leaning short | -13,024 |
| Natural Gas | -126,481 | 7 | crowded short | +18,056 |
| Euro FX | -68,001 | 1 | crowded short | -23,740 |
| Japanese Yen | -33,673 | 66 | neutral | -8,630 |
| E-mini S&P 500 | -408,726 | 23 | leaning short | +6,361 |
| E-mini Nasdaq 100 | -11,593 | 84 | leaning long | +7,619 |
| 10Y Treasury Note | -2,205,937 | 17 | leaning short | -66,152 |
| Bitcoin | -5,844 | 99 | crowded long | +1,008 |
| Ether | -6,283 | 48 | neutral | +1,666 |
| Solana | -2,598 | 80 | leaning long | +976 |
| XRP | -45 | 100 | crowded long | +388 |
Spec net = speculative long minus short contracts. Pctile = rank of that net within its trailing 3 years (0 = most short, 100 = most long). Green states = positioned long, red = positioned short; darker = more crowded. New to positioning data? How to read this report.
At an extreme
- Silver — Managed Money are net long 5,619 contracts, 7th percentile of the last 3 years (crowded short). Producer/Merchant are at the opposite extreme — classic crowding setup.
- Natural Gas — Managed Money are net short 126,481 contracts, 7th percentile of the last 3 years (crowded short).
- Euro FX — Leveraged Funds are net short 68,001 contracts, 1st percentile of the last 3 years (crowded short). Unusual week: they cut longs / added shorts by 23,740 (-2.2 sd vs. normal weekly change). Dealer/Intermediary are at the opposite extreme — classic crowding setup.
- Bitcoin — Leveraged Funds are net short 5,844 contracts, 99th percentile of the last 3 years (crowded long).
- XRP — Leveraged Funds are net short 45 contracts, 100th percentile of the last 3 years (crowded long). Dealer/Intermediary are at the opposite extreme — classic crowding setup.
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Positioning data describes what large traders held as of the report date, published with a lag. It is a crowding and context gauge, not a trade recommendation. Nothing here is investment advice. Source: CFTC (public domain).