Each week we rank speculative net positioning — Managed Money in commodities, Leveraged Funds in financials — against its own trailing three years. A high percentile means the bullish bet is crowded; a low one, the bearish bet. Positioning is a crowding and context gauge, not a timing signal.
| Instrument | Spec net | Pctile | State | 1w change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | +124,831 | 49 | neutral | +4,052 |
| Silver | +11,282 | 27 | leaning short | -219 |
| Copper | +71,515 | 96 | crowded long | +11,330 |
| WTI Crude | +63,979 | 20 | leaning short | +2,005 |
| Natural Gas | -102,756 | 17 | leaning short | +2,953 |
| Euro FX | -56,671 | 1 | crowded short | -2,980 |
| Japanese Yen | -96,185 | 8 | crowded short | -5,724 |
| E-mini S&P 500 | -322,865 | 62 | neutral | +42,137 |
| E-mini Nasdaq 100 | -74,690 | 1 | crowded short | -10,527 |
| 10Y Treasury Note | -2,064,805 | 22 | leaning short | +14,848 |
| Bitcoin | -7,949 | 86 | leaning long | -458 |
| Ether | -7,053 | 40 | neutral | +908 |
| Solana | -3,273 | 70 | neutral | -144 |
| XRP | -2,270 | – | insufficient history | -349 |
Spec net = speculative long minus short contracts. Pctile = rank of that net within its trailing 3 years (0 = most short, 100 = most long).
At an extreme
- Copper — Managed Money are net long 71,515 contracts, 96th percentile of the last 3 years (crowded long).
- Euro FX — Leveraged Funds are net short 56,671 contracts, 1st percentile of the last 3 years (crowded short). Dealer/Intermediary are at the opposite extreme — classic crowding setup.
- Japanese Yen — Leveraged Funds are net short 96,185 contracts, 8th percentile of the last 3 years (crowded short). Dealer/Intermediary are at the opposite extreme — classic crowding setup.
- E-mini Nasdaq 100 — Leveraged Funds are net short 74,690 contracts, 1st percentile of the last 3 years (crowded short). Dealer/Intermediary are at the opposite extreme — classic crowding setup.
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Positioning data describes what large traders held as of the report date, published with a lag. It is a crowding and context gauge, not a trade recommendation. Nothing here is investment advice. Source: CFTC (public domain).